Tanker Brokers’
Weekly Outlook
Crude market Overview
Crude Market Loses Momentum as Tonnage Balances Loosen
VLCC sentiment weakened at the start of the period as charterers shifted focus toward later laycans, where increasing vessel availability applied renewed pressure on rates. The Middle East Gulf to China route slipped to WS 105 from WS 112.5 despite relatively firm Indian demand, the pullback reflecting softer fixing momentum rather than any change in fundamentals.
West Africa to China followed a similar path, easing to WS 105 as immediate requirements were largely covered and competition between owners intensified. Toward the end of the period, sentiment improved modestly as fresh mid-February cargoes emerged, and fixing activity absorbed part of the spot list, allowing rates on both routes to recover slightly toward WS 97.5. Gains remained limited, however, as uncertainty around Middle East Gulf crude pricing and the prospect of lower March OSPs (Official Selling Prices) capped upside, leaving the market in consolidation rather than recovery mode.
Suezmax rates firmed early in the period, with West Africa to UK Continent lifting to WS 157.5 on the back of tighter prompt availability and improved front-end engagement. This strength proved short-lived, as additional tonnage re-entered the market and follow-through demand failed to materialise.
By the close, rates had eased back toward the WS 155 area, weighed down by softer Nigerian pricing signals, elevated freight economics into Europe and reduced buying interest ahead of refinery maintenance. Overall, the segment transitioned from early firmness into a balanced, sideways structure with limited pricing power on either side.
Aframax markets started the period steady, holding elevated levels across both Mediterranean routes as earlier supply disruptions and supportive crude pricing lent stability. The Black Sea to Mediterranean route remained near WS 290, while cross-Mediterranean levels hovered around WS 260, supported in part by firmer Saharan Blend pricing and reduced availability of competing grades.
As the period progressed, sentiment softened and corrective pressure set in. Slower fixing activity and a less restrictive tonnage position allowed charterers to regain leverage, pushing cross-Mediterranean levels down toward WS 250 and Black Sea to Mediterranean rates toward WS 270. By the end, Aframax sentiment had clearly turned softer, with incremental erosion replacing the earlier resilience seen across the basin.
Arabian Gulf
Firmer Demand Revives Eastbound LR While Westbound Remains Steady Across the Board
Clean tanker sentiment in the Middle East Gulf improved modestly over the previous week, particularly on eastbound LR routes, where a pick-up in activity allowed owners to regain some traction. LR2 levels from the Middle East Gulf to Japan increased by WS 10 to WS 215, supported by renewed fixing and gradually tightening tonnage, with Oman-loading stems continuing to attract stronger numbers. LR1 values followed the same upward trajectory, rising by WS 10 to WS 220, after holding flat at the beginning of the period. The segment closed the week on a firmer footing, with sentiment shifting into mildly supportive territory.
In the MR segment, eastbound business remained broadly stable. The Middle East Gulf to East Africa route ended the period unchanged at WS 270, with multiple fixtures confirmed at this level, including ships fixed by Admic, CSSA and KPC, some with South Africa options at WS 260. While the market saw pockets of activity, ample vessel availability and limited urgency kept fundamentals balanced. MR freight continued to trade within a narrow range, with neither owners nor charterers exerting significant control.
On westbound routes, sentiment remained steady across all sizes. LR2 lumpsums firmed slightly to $4.7M, reflecting stable positioning needs and a lack of downside pressure. LR1 levels were assessed unchanged at $3.6M, while MR freight into the UK Continent held at around $2.5M, with low diesel inventories in Europe continuing to support underlying demand. Overall, westbound momentum stayed flat, but fundamentals remain constructive heading into February.
Asia
East Asia MR Market Softens Amid Muted Demand and Ample Supply
The East Asia MR market lost ground over the previous week, with freight levels slipping across most routes amid subdued fixing interest and a growing imbalance between supply and demand. While some routes showed early signs of resilience, the overall tone turned softer as the week progressed, reflecting mounting pressure on owners in an increasingly competitive environment.
On the South Korea to Singapore route, rates initially firmed slightly to $825,000, buoyed by a brief uptick in front-end activity. However, this support quickly faded as sentiment weakened alongside muted chartering interest. By the end of the period, levels had eased back to $820,000, with the market moving into consolidation mode amid a well-supplied tonnage list and reduced urgency from charterers.
The South Korea to Australia trade held flat in the early part of the week at WS 257.5, but eventually softened to WS 255 as modest enquiry failed to absorb available ships. Despite firmer sentiment elsewhere in the region, this route remained rangebound, constrained by lingering uncertainty around gasoil exports and a persistent tonnage overhang. Charterers retained control, leaving owners with little room to push back.
The Singapore to Japan route continued to decline throughout the week, sliding from WS 207.5 to WS 202.5. The downward correction was driven by steady oversupply and limited fresh demand, as product flows, particularly for gasoline and naphtha, offered little momentum to shift sentiment. With no clear catalyst for recovery, the route entered a softer phase, mirroring broader regional dynamics.
On the Southeast Asia to Australia lane, rates slipped from WS 247.5 to WS 245, marking a continuation of the slow downtrend seen in recent weeks. The easing reflected weak trading activity and concerns over medium-term clean product demand, particularly in Indonesia, where increased domestic refining and biofuel policies are expected to reduce gasoline import reliance. Tonnage remained abundant, and sentiment stayed firmly defensive amid sustained downward pressure on TCE returns.
Northwest Europe
Northern Europe Clean Tanker and Barge Markets Hold Firm on Steady Flows
Northern European clean tanker markets firmed toward the end of the week, with MR sentiment improving across key routes. Rates on the UK Continent to West Africa route strengthened from around WS 170 to WS 185, while UK Continent to US Atlantic Coast also edged higher from WS 125 to WS 130. The tightening was partly driven by expectations of increased West African import demand following operational developments at Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, alongside a more cautious geopolitical backdrop marked by rising tensions between Iran and the United States.
This combination supported chartering interest and briefly reduced available supply. While fixing activity picked up late in the period, the move appeared more reactive than structural, with overall volumes remaining controlled. Handysize sentiment followed a similar pattern, supported by firmer MR levels, although activity stayed selective.
Barge market conditions across ARA and the Rhine were broadly stable over the same period. By the end of the week, activity had eased, with limited new cargoes observed and freight levels in ARA showing little movement. Some prompt requirements emerged late in the period to cover laterunners but were absorbed without difficulty, given current barge availability. Earlier in the week, conditions were slightly firmer, with a modest improvement in activity supporting marginally stronger freight indications. On the Rhine, operational constraints remained the dominant factor throughout, as low water levels, ice formation, and lock disruptions continued to restrict intake capacities, particularly at Kaub and further upstream. Despite these challenges, freight levels held largely steady, supported more by logistics than by demand growth.
In the small and intermediate tanker segment, Northwest Europe continued to trade on stability. Routine biofuel movements on cross-ARA routes and toward the UK Continent provided a consistent base of enquiries, broadly balancing supply. Weather-related delays were reported but remained largely operational, without causing a meaningful tightening of tonnage. As a result, freight levels stayed flat, and cover remained available. Overall, Northwest Europe continues to be characterized by steady flows and functional market conditions, with firmness driven by short-term factors rather than any structural shift.
On another note, rising bunker prices in the ARA region added another layer of caution to the market. Prices climbed steadily throughout January, rising from around $622 to approximately $690, increasing voyage costs and reinforcing a more risk-aware mindset among charterers and owners alike. Market sources pointed to broader geopolitical uncertainty, particularly concerns around a potential escalation of tensions between Iran and the United States, which has heightened fears of operational disruptions affecting crude and product flows from the Middle East. While no direct impact has materialized so far, the prevailing sentiment remains cautious, with participants closely monitoring developments and factoring higher fuel costs and geopolitical risk into their near-term trading decisions.
Small Mediterranean Tankers
Weather Delays Keep the Mediterranean Coaster Market on Edge
The Mediterranean coaster market continues to be driven by weather disruption rather than by any real change in demand. Port closures, congestion in the Gibraltar range, and difficult sailing conditions have kept vessel schedules under pressure, with delays spreading across the basin. Owners have limited visibility on forward positions, while charterers are being forced to plan more cautiously, often keeping replacement options in mind to secure execution. The prompt list remains thinner than normal, but this is mainly the result of operational disruption rather than a true lack of tonnage.
Freight levels are holding at firmer levels than before, but the support remains logistics-led. Charterers with little flexibility on dates are finding fewer suitable vessels and are therefore accepting wider loading windows and slightly higher numbers to make sure their cargoes move. However, underlying cargo volumes have not increased, and there are signs that the tonnage list is starting to rebuild as conditions slowly stabilize. Once schedules begin to normalize, the current tightness is likely to ease.
Owners with prompt, well-placed and clean-fit vessels still have a short window to defend better numbers, especially where dates are fixed. Outside of these cases, the market remains fragile. Overall, the current situation should be seen as a temporary weather-driven imbalance rather than a lasting change in the health of the Mediterranean market.
West Africa
West Africa Clean Tanker Market Trades Heavily as Owners Chase Limited Cargo
The West African clean tanker market stayed on the back foot this week, with sentiment remaining soft as available spot tonnage continues to outweigh confirmed cargo programs. While enquiries are still circulating, fixing activity remains cautious, allowing charterers to retain control on most shipping routes.
Pressure remains most visible in the Handy and MR segment around Lome, where an expanding pool of available vessels has kept rates suppressed. Lome to Lagos stems are now circulating around $225,000 to $230,000 lumpsum for 15,000 – 30,000 tons, underlining how far the market has drifted from late-year levels.
Ex-Dangote related movements offered little support this week as linked activity failed to inject momentum. This is due to the sudden spike in price changes. It is expected to stimulate downstream demand over time, though the impact has yet to meaningfully translate into immediate coastal liftings. With the ongoing maintenance of the crude distillation unit (CDU) and residue fluid catalytic cracking (RFCC), the refinery has resorted to importing gasoline amid ongoing downtime. As a result, this is expected to keep product flows uneven and reinforce the soft tone in the tanker market.
In the small tanker segment, increased gasoil interest has not translated into stronger pricing. Lome to Douala is fixing around $170,000 to $180,000 lumpsum for 10,000 tons, while other shorter routes such as Lome to Lagos, Takoradi and Cotonou remain rangebound with limited upside.
Within Nigeria, coastal employment remains available, but rate traction is weak. Lagos to Warri and Lagos to Port Harcourt continue to trade around $31,000 to $32,000 per day and $35,000 to $36,000 per day respectively, subject to owner approval, while Lagos to Calabar remains discussed near $38,000 to $40,000 per day basis minimum ten days, although fixing confidence remains thin.
Looking ahead, the market shows little sign of near-term recovery. Nigerian demand remains steady but expected to pick up as import licenses and permits continue to be approved. While Dangote refining activity has yet to generate consistent coastal liftings, spot tonnage continues to build and sentiment remains skewed toward further rate testing. As participants prioritize vessel utilization, rates are likely to trade sideways to marginally softer into next week unless a clearer pickup in confirmed import volumes materializes.
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