Tanker Brokers’
Weekly Outlook
Crude market Overview
VLCC Rebound Fades as Charterers Regain Control While Suezmax and Aframax Hold Steady
VLCC sentiment initially firmed as charterers returned to the market and absorbed prompt tonnage, extending the rebound seen after the late-January correction. The Middle East Gulf to China route climbed to WS 145 from WS 140, supported by fresh fixing and easing geopolitical risk after US – Iran tensions failed to escalate further. Indian buying patterns added support, as reduced inflows of Russian ESPO and tighter availability of alternative grades brought mainstream tonnage back into play for India-bound cargoes. West Africa followed the firmer tone, with rates improving to WS 127.5 on renewed fixing interest. However, this momentum faded toward the end of the period as precautionary bookings dried up and urgency receded. With spot activity thinning and risk premia unwinding, the Middle East Gulf to China route slipped back toward WS 137.5, while West Africa eased to around WS 125, leaving the VLCC market softer but orderly as charterers regained control.
The Suezmax market remained broadly stable throughout the period, lacking a clear directional driver. West Africa to UK Continent held close to WS 155, supported by balanced supply-demand dynamics but capped by measured enquiry and adequate prompt availability. While fixing continued, it was insufficient to generate follow-through, and slightly looser tonnage toward the latter part of the week applied mild pressure. As a result, sentiment drifted marginally softer without triggering any meaningful correction, keeping the segment rangebound and charterer-controlled.
Aframax rates edged higher early on, driven by steady Mediterranean flows and a modest tightening in prompt positions. Cross-Mediterranean levels firmed to WS 255, while Black Sea to Mediterranean held around WS 270, with improved fixing offset by sufficient tonnage. As the period progressed, momentum eased and rates settled back into a narrow range, with cross-Mediterranean softening toward WS 245 and Black Sea stabilising near WS 260. Increased Libyan exports and recovering regional flows helped maintain activity, but the absence of urgency prevented any sustained upside. Overall, Aframax sentiment remained neutral, with balanced fundamentals keeping the market steady rather than directional.
Arabian Gulf
Softer LR and MR Momentum on Eastbound Routes While Westbound Sees First Signs of Slippage
Eastbound LR sentiment in the Middle East Gulf lost further ground over the previous week, as slower chartering activity and persistent prompt availability continued to weigh on momentum. LR2 levels to Japan eased by WS 5 to WS 205, with weaker naphtha flows limiting demand-side support. LR1 held slightly better but remained capped at WS 215, with owners unable to gain traction in the absence of fresh enquiry. Despite a handful of fixtures, the tonnage list remained broadly unchanged, leaving the segment soft and awaiting a clearer directional trigger.
MR activity on East and South Africa routes also drifted lower. Middle East Gulf to East Africa held around WS 270, but sentiment tilted toward charterers, with sporadic fixtures failing to absorb the vessel surplus. Premiums for some prompt liftings into South Africa were linked to specific chartering windows, not broader strength. Overall, MR trading stayed rangebound to defensive, with fundamentals showing no signs of tightening for now.
On westbound routes, sentiment turned marginally softer after weeks of stability. LR2 levels to the UK Continent declined to $4.4M, down $300k, as lower fixing interest allowed charterers to apply pressure. LR1 also moved down by $200k to $3.4M, as the prompt list remained comfortable. MR westbound business was unchanged at around $2.5M, with fundamentals broadly balanced. While European diesel import needs continue to offer some background support, the immediate tone is drifting, with selective downward adjustments now visible across sizes.
Asia
East Asia MR Market Stays Under Pressure Despite Pockets of Resilience
The East Asia MR market showed limited movement over the previous week, with most routes trading sideways or softening slightly as chartering activity remained subdued and tonnage lists stayed long. While certain lanes demonstrated isolated firmness, the broader tone remained defensive, reflecting cautious sentiment across the region.
At the start of the previous week, the South Korea to Singapore route held steady at $815,000, supported by a broadly balanced market. Fixing activity was present but lacked urgency, and the absence of stronger demand signals prevented any upward movement. However, by the end of the week, rates had softened modestly to $800,000, as a lack of fresh enquiry and growing competition among owners weighed on sentiment.
On the South Korea to Australia trade, rates remained largely unchanged throughout the week. Initially assessed at WS 255, the route slipped slightly to WS 252.5 by the close of the period. Despite ongoing fixing, vessel availability remained ample, and the market failed to generate momentum. Fundamentals were described as stable but uninspiring, keeping the route firmly in rangebound territory.
The Singapore to Japan route came under increased pressure, declining from WS 200 to WS 192.5 over the course of the week. A persistent oversupply of vessels, coupled with weak demand for clean products, pushed rates lower. With no clear demand-side catalysts on the horizon, owners struggled to resist downward adjustments, and the route continued to mirror the broader regional downturn.
Meanwhile, the Southeast Asia to Australia market proved more resilient. Rates held steady at WS 245 at the beginning of the week and eased only slightly to WS 235 by the end. A reported fixture by Vitol helped stabilise the route, but sentiment remained fragile, with limited enquiry and cautious chartering activity dominating. As Indonesian gasoline demand continues to face headwinds, the route remains exposed to further downside risk.
Northwest Europe
European Tanker Rates Edge Higher on Dangote Disruption and Baltic Ice Formation
The Northwest European MR market strengthened toward the end of the week, driven by maintenance work at Nigeria’s Dangote refinery crude distillation unit. This supported demand for European gasoline, providing direct support to the MR segment and lifting freight levels from Europe to West Africa to WS 217.5, up 20 points from the start of the week. Despite a decline in product export volumes to the United States, MR rates to the US coasts moved higher in parallel, reaching WS 152.5, as both routes draw on the same vessel pool. This tightening in availability also impacted the Cross-UK Continent market, where the Handy segment reacted accordingly, with rates rising from WS 195 at the beginning of the week to WS 240 by the end of the period. Additional concerns emerged in the Baltic Sea as cold weather spread across the region. Rapid ice formation was reported in the upper Baltic and along its eastern coastline, extending into some of the more enclosed Danish areas. These conditions are expected to slow vessels transit, with freight levels already firming across affected areas.
In the barge segment, conditions remained largely unchanged. Market activity continued to be influenced by delays and congestion around the ARA hub, while demand for Cross-ARA movements remained subdued in recent days, maintaining pressure on freight levels. Ice formation across inland waterways in northern Germany blocked a number of barges, with no immediate relief expected given ongoing cold weather forecasts. Further south, Rhine water levels remained stable, with near-normal intake conditions along lower sections but some restrictions reported further upstream.
In the small and intermediate tanker segment, the Northwest European market continued to be dictated by prevailing sea conditions. Repeated Atlantic depressions impacted western coastlines, slowing vessels transit and delaying port operations. Cargo flows remained broadly balanced throughout January, with steady cargo availability and well-distributed small and intermediate tanker fleets providing sufficient tonnage for prompt and forward employment. However, concerns are emerging for February, as adverse weather conditions combined with expanding ice coverage in the Baltic Sea may reduce vessels availability for prompt shipments.
Small Mediterranean Tankers
West Mediterranean Weather Disruption Keeps Prompt Tonnage Tight, Mohammedia Driving a Premium
Adverse weather in the western Mediterranean continues to dominate the tanker market, creating significant operational strain across the board. Vessel movements remain materially slowed, especially around the Strait of Gibraltar and the western Mediterannean approaches, where ports such as Algeciras and Tarragona are facing heavy disruptions. Waiting times are now measured in days and in some cases weeks, severely impacting logistics chains and throwing voyage schedules off balance.
This congestion is keeping prompt tonnage extremely tight, creating an “artificial” scarcity in a market where underlying demand remains broadly moderate. Activity is patchy, with only a handful of chemical movements reported into Spain and France. Freight levels reflect this duality. While the wider market remains negotiable, a clear premium is being paid for genuinely open, well-positioned units with realistic ETAs, assets that are becoming increasingly scarce.
Morocco has become a key demand driver, with Mohammedia turning into a focal point. The closure of the main port to larger vessels has pushed discharge operations into the inner port, accessible only to coasters. This shift is generating strong pressure on eligible tonnage and has resulted in noticeably firmer numbers for the most prompt units, particularly those able to comply with the port’s restrictions.
An improvement in overall availability could emerge from the week of February 16th, but this remains highly conditional on a lull in the weather and a meaningful reduction of current backlogs. In the near term, tightness is expected to persist and should continue to underpin a firm tone, potentially even a slight rate appreciation, until queues are cleared and tonnage supply normalizes. It is worth underlining, however, that the present firmness is primarily driven by operational constraints, and could therefore unwind quickly once navigation and port handling conditions return to normal.
On the biofuel side, Eni and Q8 Italy have approved the conversion of the Priolo Gargallo site into a new biorefinery with a capacity of 500,000 tonnes per year, producing renewable diesel (HVO) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Engineering is complete, early works are starting, and completion is targeted by end-2028, supporting the broader medium-term trend of rising HVO/SAF flows and related intra-Med distribution requirements.
West Africa
West Africa Clean Tanker Market Remains Soft as Activities Gradually Pickup
The West African clean tanker market remained generally soft this week, though signs of stabilization are emerging as enquiry levels remain steady and forward coverage begins to attract interest. While prompt tonnage remains available, fixing discussions are becoming more structured, helping to slow the pace of further rate decline.
Pressure is most evident around Lome in the Handy and MR segment. Short haul routes continue to drift lower, with Lome to Lagos now discussed at $220,000 to $230,000 lumpsum for 15,000 – 30,000 tons. Owners face increasing competition for nearby employment, while longer West African routes have been marked higher on assessment without a corresponding improvement in fixing activity. Lome to Tema is now indicated at $230,000 to $240,000 lumpsum, while Lome to Abidjan has moved up to $290,000 to $300,000. Other routes such as Lome to Dakar and Lome to Ango Ango are now indicated in the $340,000 to $350,000 lumpsum range, suggesting improved reluctance from owners on longer routes.
Ex-Dangote activity remains mixed but stable. Dangote to Lome remains unchanged at $230,000 to $240,000, while Dangote to Douala/Limbe has decreased to $260,000 to $270,000 lumpsum. Ex-Dangote Refinery related product flows remain uneven due to ongoing maintenance but continue to provide support especially with more JET / ATK liftings as price adjustments are expected to gradually rebalance.
In the small tanker segment, the market remains soft on core coastal routes although the declines appear to be moderating. Lome to Lagos has slipped to $137,000 to $140,000 for 10,000 tons, while Lome to Douala is now fixing around $160,000 to $170,000 lumpsum. Other shorter routes, such as Lome to Takoradi and Lome to Cotonou, remain active but rangebound, offering little upside for owners. Lome to Ango Ango has moved higher on assessment to $220,000 to $230,000 lumpsum, largely reflecting positioning rather than stronger demand.
Within Nigeria, coastal employment remains available with an uptick in demand. Rates have adjusted lower but appear to be gaining support with Lagos to Warri is now discussed around $27,000 to $29,000 per day, Lagos to Port Harcourt at $29,000 to $31,000 per day, and Lagos to Calabar near $30,000 to $31,000 per day, all basis minimum ten days and subject to owner approval. Cross-border coastal employment from Lome into Nigeria remains similarly soft with gradual increasing demand.
Looking ahead, the market is stabilizing and underway to be more rebalanced. Nigerian demand is steady and expected to improve gradually as the Nigerian Midstream & Downstream Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) import approvals/permits continue to progress especially for Gasoil, but current volumes remain insufficient to absorb the growing spot list. With owners focused on maintaining utilization, the market appears to be moving toward stabilization, with scope for selective firmness as more confirmed volumes increase and import permits issued.
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