Tanker Brokers’
Weekly Outlook
Crude market Overview
Crude Tanker Rates Drift Lower
VLCC rates from the Middle East Gulf softened steadily over the week as chartering activity slowed amid International Energy Week in London and ahead of the Lunar New Year, allowing charterers to regain control. The Middle East Gulf to China route declined from WS 140 at the start of the period to WS 130, as fixing volumes thinned and prompt vessel availability increased. Reduced market participation weighed on sentiment, with limited follow-through buying interest.
West Africa held comparatively stable around WS 127.5, helping to keep overall sentiment orderly despite weakness in the Middle East Gulf. Underlying demand from Asia provided some offset. Indian refiners continued to secure Middle East Gulf crude amid tighter sanctions on Russian exports, while higher March-loading term allocations from Saudi Aramco to China may support cargo volumes into next month. Nevertheless, the market closed the period softer but balanced, as the absence of urgency capped any upside momentum.
Suezmax rates in the Middle East Gulf were mixed over the week, with a clear divergence between India-bound and eastbound routes. Freight levels to Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia remained broadly stable at around WS 170 and WS 167.5, respectively. In contrast, rates to the west coast of India strengthened markedly, rising from WS 187.5 to WS 225, as owners pushed offers higher on shorter-haul voyages to secure stronger time-charter equivalent returns relative to longer eastbound routes. Continued demand from Indian refiners for Middle East Gulf crude, following the shift away from Russian barrels, provided underlying support. Overall, the week highlighted firm India-bound sentiment against a stable eastbound backdrop.
Aframax rates in the Mediterranean and Black Sea softened progressively over the week before stabilising toward the close of the period. The cross-Mediterranean route declined from WS 240 to WS 227.5, while Black Sea to Mediterranean fell from WS 275 to WS 245, reflecting limited activity and softer regional conditions. Changes to planned cargo movements added pressure midweek, while discussion around upcoming EU maritime service restrictions on Russian crude failed to generate immediate support. By the end of the period, rates held steady, with weather-related port delays in northern Europe helping to keep fundamentals broadly balanced.
Arabian Gulf
Middle East Gulf Clean Rates Weaken Across Key Routes
LR1 and LR2 rates from the Middle East Gulf to the Far East weakened steadily over the week as limited fixing activity failed to offset growing prompt availability. LR2 levels to Japan declined from WS 190 to WS 170, while LR1 rates fell from WS 200 to WS 185, reflecting the looser supply-demand balance. The decline was compounded by reduced clean product exports as several regional refiners entered maintenance, weighing on cargo volumes and enquiry.
On the Middle East Gulf to East Africa route, MR rates fell sharply from WS 245 to WS 200 amid comfortable tonnage supply and softer regional demand. The correction gathered pace midweek as enquiry thinned, with refinery maintenance further constraining export volumes. Although some late-February gasoline stems may provide temporary support, fundamentals remained tilted toward charterers.
Westbound routes to the UK Continent edged lower before stabilising. LR1 levels eased from $3.3m to $3.2m, while LR2 rates slipped to $4.2m, marking a modest adjustment as broader clean sentiment softened. The earlier support from elevated geopolitical risk faded following an easing in US – Iran tensions, and rates ended the week largely unchanged with no new drivers emerging.
Asia
East Asia MR Market Remains Under Pressure
On the South Korea to Singapore route, MR freight declined steadily over the week, falling from $785,000 to $720,000 as limited enquiry and comfortable tonnage availability kept owners under pressure. Fixing activity proved insufficient to rebalance supply, leaving sentiment weak and without a clear catalyst for stabilisation.
A similar trajectory unfolded on the South Korea to Australia route, where rates eased from WS 242.5 to WS 230 amid persistent regional softness. With vessel supply continuing to outpace charterers’ requirements, momentum remained negative throughout the period.
The Singapore to Japan route also drifted lower, slipping from WS 190 to WS 182.5 after briefly holding steady midweek. Despite the temporary pause, fundamentals remained loose, and freight levels continued to track the softer Asia-Pacific clean market environment.
Meanwhile, the Southeast Asia to Australia route extended its decline from WS 230 to WS 220. Weaker refinery throughput in parts of Southeast Asia, including reported cargo cancellations at Malaysia’s PrefChem refinery, weighed on expected product flows. Although firmer Chinese export margins and gasoline tender activity in Indonesia may provide some near-term support, the regional balance remained in favour of charterers.
Northwest Europe
European Product Tankers Face Softening Market Perspectives
The Northwest European MR market remained firm in the early part of the week as vessels continued to capitalize on the recent surge in product exports toward West Africa, following maintenance at Nigeria’s Dangote refinery. Freight levels peaked around WS 230 by mid-week on the UK-Continent to West Africa route. However, this strength proved short-lived as the refinery announced a gradual resumption of operations. Most of the recently achieved European-origin flows were set to drop again, reviving downward pressure on freight rates and increasing the number of vessels on offer in the Northwest European market. By the end of the week, rates had already started to ease on the UK-Continent to West Africa route. These developments were not seen as supportive for the Handy segment.
Transatlantic flows provided little support, as US gasoline imports remained limited. The UK-Continent to US Atlantic Coast route remained stuck at WS 150, offering no meaningful upside for the segment. Cross-European markets were largely subdued, with trading activity mainly sustained by weather-related delays and backlogs, as well as some ice formation in the upper and eastern Baltic areas. Fixing activity slowed during International Energy Week in London, further limiting market momentum.
In the barge segment, sentiment was mixed during the week. The sector experienced a period of complicated operations, involving weather-related delays and port congestion, although this began to ease in the early part of the week. Freight levels softened as more barges returned to the market and became available for fixing. Fixing activity was further slowed by reduced market participation during London industry events. Meanwhile, water levels along the Rhine rose following recent heavy rainfall across its drainage areas, allowing barges to optimize their intake capacity and pass traditional river bottlenecks more efficiently.
In the small and intermediate segment, market conditions remained broadly unchanged. Adverse weather continued to affect Atlantic coastlines, while ice formation in the upper and eastern Baltic slowed certain operations. Together with reduced activity during London industry gatherings, fixing remained limited, with no significant change in overall freight patterns, exception made for shipments involving some Baltic ports.
Small Mediterranean Tankers
Small Tankers Mediterranean Market Cools as Weather-Driven Rally Fades
The Mediterranean market turned notably quiet this week, with limited fresh enquiry surfacing and activity slowed further by the annual IE Week in London, which kept many players on the sidelines. Following the recent weather-driven spike in freight levels, sentiment has now softened considerably. Several vessels are scheduled to come open from 15/16 February, and owners are actively pushing these positions, indicating a market that is gradually tilting back in charterers’ favour rather than sustaining the earlier weather-induced firmness.
Flows into Morocco, particularly via Mohammedia, have also cooled noticeably. Ex-Mohammedia parcels are resurfacing on the spot market, suggesting fuller storage tanks and renewed local lifting activity, which reduces the immediate need for inbound resupply. However, adverse weather continues to persist along the Atlantic facade, particularly at Tan Tan, where port authorities have been forced to revise restrictions for safety reasons. The maximum draught has now been reduced from 6 metres to 4.50 metres, compelling vessels to divert and discharge their cargoes at other Moroccan ports instead.
On the biofuel front, activity across the basin was almost non-existent. Cargill was spotted for 2,500 tons of FAME ex-Barcelona discharging at Port La Nouvelle, but aside from this single movement, no other notable cargoes emerged.
In conclusion, the recent tension observed in the Mediterranean market over the past few weeks has confirmed that weather was the primary catalyst driving freight rate increases, rather than underlying cargo volumes. With conditions now stabilising, the market appears to have returned to a more normalised state, a development that is not always welcome news for owners seeking sustained rate strength.
Looking ahead to the broader regulatory landscape for biofuels in 2026, an increasing number of EU member states are expected to transpose the RED III directive into national law, though implementation will remain uneven. Some countries still await final approvals while others have advanced draft transpositions. This slow and fragmented progress continues to sustain uncertainty across renewable fuel markets, including both biofuels and e-fuels. SGS INSPIRE therefore expects this “patchwork” regulatory environment to persist throughout 2026, potentially delaying, suspending, or even cancelling production projects as illustrated by the suspension of the H2UB green hydrogen hub announced in June 2025. Outside the EU, particularly in the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland, biofuel and SAF consumption is expected to increase. Notably, Switzerland has introduced a SAF mandate aligned with ReFuelEU Aviation (EU Regulation 2023/2405), which entered into force on 1 January 2026.
West Africa
West Africa Clean Tanker Market Builds Momentum as Coastal Demand Tightens
The West African clean tanker market is showing firmer undertones this week, led by a clear strengthening in Nigerian coastal employment that is beginning to rebalance regional supply.
Regional MR and Handy routes out of Lome remain competitive but stable. Lome to Lagos is holding at $220,000 to $230,000 lumpsum for 15,000 to 30,000 tons, while westbound routes such as Abidjan at $290,000 to $300,000 lumpsum and Dakar and Ango Ango at $340,000 to $350,000 lumpsum are being maintained at higher indications. Owners are showing greater discipline on longer routes, and while fixtures remain selective, downside pressure is beginning to clear slowly.
Ex-Dangote movements are steady. Dangote to Lome remains at $230,000 to $240,000 lumpsum, while Douala and Limbe are assessed at $260,000 to $270,000 lumpsum. But the meaningful shift is within Nigeria’s domestic market. 15,000 tons coastal employment has strengthened materially, with Lagos to Warri now at $33,000 to $35,000 per day, Port Harcourt at $36,000 to $38,000 per day, and Calabar at $38,000 to $40,000 per day, all basis minimum ten days and subject to owner approval. Cross border employment from Lome into Nigeria is following the same upward trend. Even 10,000 tons units are seeing improved daily levels as utilization increases.
In the small tanker segment, short-haul routes out of Lome remain largely unchanged, with Lagos at $137,000 to $140,000 lumpsum for 10,000 tons and Douala at $160,000 to $170,000 lumpsum. Ango Ango continues to command a premium at $220,000 to $230,000 lumpsum, reflecting tighter positioning in that pocket.
With more import approvals now converting into lifting programs, the prompt list is gradually tightening. An increase in product import permits, particularly gasoil is feeding incremental demand into the coastal market. Market players also indicate that Dangote refinery utilization levels may improve following the current ongoing maintenance period, with expectations of higher production output almost reaching full installed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day once units progressively resume operations. Any sustained increase in output could extend into wider regional firming in the coming weeks.
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